[전문]미국 연방준비위원회 12월 FOMC 성명서

 

 

 

 

 

 

[전문]미국 연방준비위원회 12월 FOMC 성명서

 

 

 

 

연방준비제도(연준)는 2014.12. 17일 '상당기간(considerable time)' 초저금리를 유지하겠다는 문구를 삭제하고 기준금리를 인상하는데 '인내심을 가질 것(be patient)'이라는 문구로 대체했다. 연준은 이날 이틀간의 연방공개시장위원회(FOMC) 회의에서 이같이 결정했다. 연준은 사실상 제로수준인 기준금리를 유지하기로 했다.

 

 

다음은 연준이 이날 발표한 FOMC 성명서 전문이다.

 

 

Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in October suggests that economic activity is expanding at a moderate pace. Labor market conditions improved further, with solid job gains and a lower unemployment rate. On balance, a range of labor market indicators suggests that underutilization of labor resources continues to diminish. Household spending is rising moderately and business fixed investment is advancing, while the recovery in the housing sector remains slow. Inflation has continued to run below the Committee's longer-run objective, partly reflecting declines in energy prices. Market-based measures of inflation compensation have declined somewhat further; survey-based measures of longer-term inflation expectations have remained stable.

 

Consistent with its statutory mandate, the Committee seeks to foster maximum employment and price stability. The Committee expects that, with appropriate policy accommodation, economic activity will expand at a moderate pace, with labor market indicators moving toward levels the Committee judges consistent with its dual mandate. The Committee sees the risks to the outlook for economic activity and the labor market as nearly balanced. The Committee expects inflation to rise gradually toward 2 percent as the labor market improves further and the transitory effects of lower energy prices and other factors dissipate. The Committee continues to monitor inflation developments closely.

 

To support continued progress toward maximum employment and price stability, the Committee today reaffirmed its view that the current 0 to 1/4 percent target range for the federal funds rate remains appropriate. In determining how long to maintain this target range, the Committee will assess progress--both realized and expected--toward its objectives of maximum employment and 2 percent inflation. This assessment will take into account a wide range of information, including measures of labor market conditions, indicators of inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and readings on financial developments. Based on its current assessment, the Committee judges that it can be patient in beginning to normalize the stance of monetary policy. The Committee sees this guidance as consistent with its previous statement that it likely will be appropriate to maintain the 0 to 1/4 percent target range for the federal funds rate for a considerable time following the end of its asset purchase program in October, especially if projected inflation continues to run below the Committee's 2 percent longer-run goal, and provided that longer-term inflation expectations remain well anchored. However, if incoming information indicates faster progress toward the Committee's employment and inflation objectives than the Committee now expects, then increases in the target range for the federal funds rate are likely to occur sooner than currently anticipated. Conversely, if progress proves slower than expected, then increases in the target range are likely to occur later than currently anticipated.

 

The Committee is maintaining its existing policy of reinvesting principal payments from its holdings of agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities in agency mortgage-backed securities and of rolling over maturing Treasury securities at auction. This policy, by keeping the Committee's holdings of longer-term securities at sizable levels, should help maintain accommodative financial conditions.

When the Committee decides to begin to remove policy accommodation, it will take a balanced approach consistent with its longer-run goals of maximum employment and inflation of 2 percent. The Committee currently anticipates that, even after employment and inflation are near mandate-consistent levels, economic conditions may, for some time, warrant keeping the target federal funds rate below levels the Committee views as normal in the longer run.

 

Voting for the FOMC monetary policy action were: Janet L. Yellen, Chair; William C. Dudley, Vice Chairman; Lael Brainard; Stanley Fischer; Loretta J. Mester; Jerome H. Powell; and Daniel K. Tarullo.

Voting against the action were Richard W. Fisher, who believed that, while the Committee should be patient in beginning to normalize monetary policy, improvement in the U.S. economic performance since October has moved forward, further than the majority of the Committee envisions, the date when it will likely be appropriate to increase the federal funds rate; Narayana Kocherlakota, who believed that the Committee's decision, in the context of ongoing low inflation and falling market-based measures of longer-term inflation expectations, created undue downside risk to the credibility of the 2 percent inflation target; and Charles I. Plosser, who believed that the statement should not stress the importance of the passage of time as a key element of its forward guidance and, given the improvement in economic conditions, should not emphasize the consistency of the current forward guidance with previous statements.

 

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미국 중앙은행이 2014.12.17일(현지시간) 제로(0) 수준인 초저금리 정책을 유지하기로 하면서 뉴욕증시가 큰 폭으로 올랐다. 시장의 이목을 집중시켰던 내년 통화·금융정책의 향배가 현행 기조의 유지로 가닥이 잡히면서 지난 3거래일 연속의 하락세가 상승세로 돌아섰다. 이날 뉴욕증권거래소(NYSE)에서 다우존스 산업평균지수는 전날보다 288.00포인트(1.69%) 오른 17,356.87로 마감했다. 스탠더드 앤드 푸어스(S&P) 500지수는 40.15포인트(2.04%) 상승한 2,012.89를, 나스닥 종합지수는 96.48포인트(2.12%) 오른 4,644.31을 각각 기록했다.

미 연방준비제도(연준·Fed) 연방공개시장위원회(FOMC)는 이날 이틀간의 정례회의를 끝내며 기준금리를 현행 연 0∼0.25%로 유지하기로 결정했다. 연준은 회의 후 발표한 성명에서 "통화정책 정상화에 착수하는 데 인내심을 발휘할 수 있을 것으로 판단한다"고 밝혔다. 그동안 연준이 초저금리 유지 기간과 관련해 사용해온 '상당 기간'이라는 표현도 그대로 남겨 놓기는 했다. 이는 글로벌 금융위기 후 6년째 지속돼온 초저금리 정책에 일단 변화가 없음을 재확인하는 것이다. 금리인상 폭과 시기가 구체화 되며 연준이 '매파적 접근'을 할 것이라는 관측은 가라앉았다.

유가의 급락이 이날 멈춰 선 것도 주가 상승을 견인했다. 국제유가가 최근 급락에 따른 반발 매수세 등으로 상승한 가운데 에너지주가 일제히 올랐다. 2015. 1월 인도분 서부텍사스산 원유(WTI)는 이날 전날보다 1.0% 상승 마감했다($55.93).  미 노동부가 개장 전 발표한 11월 소비자물가지수(CPI)는 전달보다 0.3% 하락한것으로 집계되며 2008년 12월 이후 가장 큰 폭의 하락폭을 나타냈다. 유가 하락으로 관련 제품의 가격이 내려가고, 달러화 강세로 수입 물가가 낮아진 여파로 해석되고 있다.